Level (click graph to see
more well data)
Check your forecast here (click map to go to
state weather page)
Graphic courtesy NOAA showing CT area watches and
warnings if any.
April 28, 2017 Update
Summary (details follow)
US Drought Monitor analysis released April 27 shows the
area of Moderate Drought reduced to 28% of the state, down from 56% last week.
This change makes the Abnormally Dry area now 56% (it was 33% last week). The
eastern 13% of Connecticut is in the No Drought category, up a little from 11%
worst drought since the
historic drought of the 1960s continues.
showed a quick improvement after heavy rains but many
monitoring wells are now dropping back close to or below normal.
Interagency Drought Workgroup (IDW)
met on March 8 but has not yet published any recommended changes to the state's drought alert level. The Drought Watch continues for six CT counties; Drought Advisory continues for the eastern two
counties. The state is still requesting all residents to reduce their water use.
Only Up through the first week of this month,
streamflow increased in
almost all rivers and
streams due to decent rainfall. In general it has fallen back since then to
steady levels close to average for this time of year. Some stream gages are
showing flow patterns quite different from the rest, most likely due to changes
in releases from dams. Even the Saugatuck River, that was setting low-flow
records since November, is now above normal. See below for a discussion of what a normal streamflow pattern looks like.
In November, fishermen reported
of rivers with no catch at all. How well river ecosystems recover from the
drought will depend on flow from groundwater. Where groundwater is near normal,
streamflow should remain healthy between storms unless rainfall patterns change
as they did in the past four or five years.
NOTICE (03/30/2017) --
Data collection at the following gages may be discontinued on June 30,
2017, due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic
data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or
more new funding partners are found. Users who can contribute funding
for the non-federal share of costs to continue operation of these
stream gages should contact Jon Morrison at the USGS New England Water
Science Center - Connecticut Office (860-291-6761) or email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Your water utility and town web pages are
the best sources of information on water use restrictions that
apply specifically to you.
The CT Department of Public Health (DPH) Monthly Reservoir Status Summary reports that at the end of March capacity was
at 97% of normal. Note that
"normal" means the average capacity reported at the end of each month over many years. The March average is 96% of
total capacity. The 97%
of normal is based on reports from 34 large water systems that use
reservoirs. That percentage means those reservoirs averaged
93% of overall capacity. Nineteen of the 34 systems reported no restrictions on
"Voluntary Water Restrictions" is noted for three systems; "Water
Advisory" for four systems; one has a "Water Supply Watch"; "Water
Supply or Drought Emergency" is listed for five systems; one has a
"Water Supply Warning"; and one has declared a "PHASE 2 Drought
Alert." The Monthly Reservoir Status Summary is one of several links on DPH's Reservoir
Data monthly web page.
On Apr 28, one of the seven
real-time monitoring wells run by the USGS
with multi-year records was back below 75% of its records for the date, though
it is not breaking low water records. Three of them are higher than 75% of their
records, three are near normal. The first week of April was the first time
all of them were finally reporting near- or above-average levels, after a year
of low groundwater measurements. March 30 was the first time in months that
none of the seven monitoring wells were breaking records for lowest daily average for the date. The water table's
lowest levels occurred in
September, with more stations breaking
low-water-level records than those that were
merely very low until November.
As of Apr 28, 7% of the most recent measurements at the 70
wells on the
Watch website were much below normal, though they were all last measured on
Mar 30 and may show better numbers next week. This is a distinct improvement
from April 13 when 21% were much below normal. None had measurements lower than
any previous year's measurement at those wells going back 16 to 20 years.
14% were rated below normal on Apr 28, down from 19% on
April 13. 74% are now near normal, two of the wells are above normal, one is
well above normal. On April 13, 70% were near or above normal.
The water level in streams and rivers between storms depends on
the flow of water out of the ground into the stream channel. The
higher the water table, the more water is available to keep
streams flowing. During a drought, smaller upland streams dry
up faster than the larger rivers (details
below below). An occasional brief, powerful rainstorm does not do
much to help groundwater levels rise. The rain falls faster than
the ground can absorb, and thus much of it becomes stormwater
runoff. In that situation, public water supply systems that
depend on reservoirs are affected less than those with wells
because the runoff is collected by the reservoirs. How much
groundwater is contributed by snow depends on several factors
including slope, rate of snowmelt, and whether the ground beneath
the snow is frozen or saturated.
has been an apparent pattern for the
last five years in which normal groundwater
levels in winter and spring have alternated with
well-below-average in summer and fall. Click the graph to the
right for a larger version in a new tab of a modified USGS graph.
There are two trends of great concern. One concern is that the below-normal levels
in summer and fall got worse in each of those years. The other concern is that
the water table has not recovered yet this year as it did in previous years. Five years is not long
enough to make any statistically valid conclusions about climate,
however, and those station records only go back seven to 14 years.
Click here to see all the USGS graphs for their
real-time groundwater measurements that compare levels from the
last four years to the median level for each day of the year
(lots of data, so it takes a long time to load). USGS
manually measures other wells once a month or so, and a quick look
at those records verified the possibility that this pattern may
apply to all our groundwater.
Watch website is an excellent source of data for examining
historic and current trends. The map of CT (example below) is color
coded the same way the USGS Connecticut streamflow map is colored to
show how the most recent measurements compare to historical records for
each station. Graphs can be made to chart water levels for all 70 wells.
As of April 28th the National Weather Service
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service reports that the 30-day precipitation
totals across Connecticut ranges from 25% below normal in western parts of the
state to 25% above normal in eastern Connecticut. Western CT is now showing
below-normal precipitation totals for 7, 14, 30, and 60 day time scales. Eastern
CT is in better shape due to getting more rain recently than the western side.
Periods of unusually heavy
precipitation do not
compensate for periods of dry weather even if they average out to
heavy rain does not all soak in to recharge groundwater. Go to this link
for detailed maps and data.
For most of 2016, storm tracks brought precipitation out to sea
or north of us because a persistent high-pressure system called a
pattern was diverting weather fronts and storms. This was the same bad situation as in previous years (see
below), caused not only by less total rainfall than normal
over a long period of time but also by the intensity of the rain
we did get. Not all drought conditions went away in winter 2015 and
were worse this past winter.Generally, as our climate changes, heavy
precipitation events are
becoming more frequent, but heavy rain does not recharge
aquifers as much as the same amount of rain over longer periods
would. This means that even when long-term total rainfall returns
to normal, streams and rivers could still be afflicted with drought
conditions because between storms the flow will drop to low levels due
to a lower than normal water table.
Some studies relate recent extreme weather events to an
upper-atmospere situation during which the jet stream becomes confined
into a stable pattern of alternating north and south flows resembling
waves when viewed on a map. Normally the jet stream meanders in
direction so that the storms and dry areas that are steered by the
position of the jet stream travel west to east along more or less random
paths. When the jet stream gets locked into position, however, the
storms and dry areas follow the same paths over and over. If the
position of the these persistent jet steam waves shifts, areas that were
missed by most storms start getting one storm after another and
vise versa. There is speculation that if this is a new atmospheric
phenomenon, it may be caused by a shift in wind systems from the loss of
Arctic sea ice that is causing unprecedented warming in the north. For
more information, see these articles about the studies:
Scientists Link California Droughts, Floods To Distinctive Atmospheric Waves (2017-04-06),
Extreme Weather Events Linked to Climate Change Impact on the Jet Stream (2017-03-27).
Rain? The National Weather Service's seven-day forecasts
predict above normal rainfall, which should allow streams to show a healthy
varying day to day from above to below average. If it does not rain, streamflow will
obviously fall, but where the water table is near or above average it should
stay at healthy levels. Streamflow could drop back to unhealthy levels
where the water table is below normal.
Long-range (16-day) computer models
are also predicting above-normal rainfall due to storms tracking over us. A
persistent shift in storm tracks to our north and south contributed
our drought conditions over the last few years (see discussion above),
so monitoring storm
tracks can help to determine if our drought will intensifying over the
next few months as it did in previous years. As long as rainfall remains
near normal, our streams can continue to recover from drought
conditions, but not all parts of the state have the groundwater reserves necessary to
maintain healthy between-storm flows should storm tracks again begin to
consistently miss us. A persistent pattern that brings all storms over us could
actually lead to flooding problems.
Each month, the NWS Climate Prediction Center issues
analyses of global atmospheric conditions that could influence
general temperature and precipitation patterns. Their April analysis for
trends through August show equal chances for
above-normal, for normal, and for below-normal
precipitation. Above-normal temperatures are a little more
likely than normal temperatures. This is pretty much the same
three-month forecast we have seen over the past year, but actual
precipitation was much lower than normal. Before the April analysis, for three
months in a row, their prognostications for the summer gave a 40% chance for
above-normal rainfall, a 33% chance for normal, and a 27% chance for below
normal precipitation. That prediction has now shifted to the fall.
Lowest Baseflow Streams
and Rivers in Connecticut
Very variable rainfall this spring has greatly affected our count of the number
of low-flow rivers*.
Only 2 stream gages, the
Mill River near Fairfield and the
Housatonic at Stevenson were showing low flow*
on the afternoon of April 28. The Housatonic River was at normal earlier in the
day when the Stevenson Dam was generating power. Having single digit numbers of
low flow rivers is expected to continue due to predicted normal or above normal
On March 30, eight of 62 (13% of) Connecticut rivers were
flows*. On March 23, 44 of the 72 (61%) stream gages listed by the CT office of the USGS at this link
were reporting flows lower than 75 percent of all the daily averages
for the date for those gages. This is a little better than on March 9, when
we found that 47 of 62 (76%) Connecticut rivers and streams from a slightly different list were
12 the previous week. For more information on that sudden jump in the low-flow list, please see the IDW freshet discussion from Jan. 20.
Before March 30, we last saw single-digit numbers of low-flow streams on February 24,
when there were seven low-flow rivers on our list, the same number as the
That was a significant improvement from February 14 when there
were 23, and from
February 6 when there were 34 low-flow streams. In January the
from 27 to 35. During most of
2016, there usually were 50 to 60 low-flow streams; on December 23
there were 53.
All low-flow rivers raise a concern about the recovery of their
ecosystems from drought conditions. This is especially true when the flow is lower than any record for the date,
such as the Saugatuck River, the only that was one breaking records on April 13 and 19. There were two record-breakers March 23, an improvement from the
seven on March 16 and the five on March 9. On March 1, only the
Saugatuck River stream gage was reporting flow lower than any record for
the date, as it has since November.
In most of February, there were only one or two record-breaking low-flow rivers,
an improvement from Feb. 6 when there were seven record-breakers. In January the
number of record-breakers ranged from five to nine. The number of record
breakers were much higher for most of 2016; for example, there were
bottom graph to the right illustrates what can be considered an average
pattern of streamflow, in that the stream shows a flow that peaks above
its average for the time of year but then drops to below average. The
streams that maintain healthy flows between storms are
those draining the parts of the state where there has been decent
rainfall or those controlled by managed dams.
How quickly the flow drops after each rainstorm, and how low it
drops, is unique for each
stream, because it depends on how much water ran off the surface
compared to how much soaked in to increase groundwater levels. If the
watershed of the stream has not received average long-term rainfall, the
low water table will allow the flow between storms to drop to unusually
low levels. In watersheds with lots of impervious
roads, roofs, parking lots, patios, and compacted soil in lawns, a
lot of the rain typically flows over the surface or through storm
drains directly into the streams, leading to flooding problems far
more often than in watersheds with mostly natural surfaces. Their
streamflow then drops quickly after the storm ends, and the flow
levels off far lower than in streams whose watersheds have more
Their analysis released April 27 shows the area of Moderate
Drought in Connecticut reduced to 28% of the state, down from 56% last week.
This change makes the Abnormally Dry area now 56% (it was 33% last week). The
eastern 13% of Connecticut is in the No Drought category, up a little from 11%
narrative says: "Widespread showers
continued the (northeast) region’s slow
recovery from long-term drought ... Although short-term dryness is currently not
a concern, slower-to-recover drought impacts remained. In particular,
groundwater levels remained unfavorably low (10 to 25th percentile, locally
below the 10th percentile) in the region’s lingering Abnormal Dryness and
Moderate Drought areas, and additional soaking rainfall will be needed to
recharge the region’s aquifers as water demands increase in response to
seasonally warmer weather."
The "additional soaking rainfall" they refer to would actually have to all soak in to help.
AsAs the graph below shows, Connecticut has been labeled Abnormally
Dry, Moderate Drought, or worse pretty often over the last few
years. This graph was made before any of the state was rated as
does the current drought compare to historic droughts in Connecticut? This graph
is from NOAA's National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS),
displaying the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) for our
state for the past century (click on it for a larger view in a new tab).
Since groundwater and streamflow did not fully recover from the
annual return of drought conditions of the past few years, we can
consider our current drought as starting in 2010 or 2012. The
overall length of time we have had these intermittent drought
conditions is comparable to the continuous drought of the
1960s. At times in 2016, the severity of the current drought approached the
maximum severity in the 1960s. It is therefore fair to say the
current drought is one of the worst in 100 years. Area weather
forcasters have been reporting that the current drought is the worst since the 1960s.
Are small and large streams affected by dry conditions equally?
This graph plots
the rate of flow on September 4, 2015 as a percentage of the
median for each stream gage. For example, a dot at the 40% line
means that stream that day was flowing at 40% of what could be
considered normal for that date. The few rivers and streams
flowing at or above 100% of their median rate are mostly those
with flows managed by dam releases.